The trading day Thursday 24 November 2022

It is almost unchanged and below the technical resistance of 14,440 points DAX from Wednesday business. A small trading margin and relatively low turnover ruled things midway through the week. Investors held back – and looked to the United States. On Wall Street, the leading indices posted slight gains. One reason may have been the content of the Fed minutes, as the US Federal Reserve increasingly signals that it is shifting to a less aggressive stance when it comes to rate hikes. A “clear majority” of policymakers think the pace of rate hikes will slow down soon, according to minutes from the last rate meeting earlier this month released on Wednesday. This should make it easier for the central bank to assess its progress towards full employment and price stability. This approach should take into account the uncertainty of how long it will take for rate hikes to take effect and how much of an impact they will have on the economy and inflation.

In early November, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for the fourth time in a row. It is currently between 3.75 and 4.00 percent. Meanwhile, several US central bankers have indicated they would like to take smaller steps. In the futures markets, the probability of a smaller interest rate hike of 0.50 percentage point was now estimated at 79 percent at the mid-December meeting.

However, the DAX is currently valued at around 14,470 points and is therefore both firmer and above the chart’s technical resistance, which stands at around 14,440 points. Nevertheless, relatively thin trading in the middle of the week should be followed by similar trading today. The reason: Wall Street remains closed due to the US Thanksgiving holiday. In this country, the eyes of investors should be primarily on the data of the Ifo business climate index lie. The index reflects the mood in the executive suites.

Most recently, corporate expectations have been clouded in the face of supply chain issues and rising energy prices. “November’s figures will show whether the actual business situation is also deteriorating and whether the German economy is already heading for a recession,” summarizes Commerzbank expert Ralph Solveen. However, a clear signal is not to be expected: while the global index is likely to fall slightly, expectations may even have risen slightly given the diminishing risk of a gas shortage.

In addition, industry association ACEA will publish fresh commercial vehicle sales figures and Remy Cointreau will present detailed quarterly results. The Bundesbank presents its Financial Stability Report 2022. France has data on the business climate and Turkey has the results of the Central Bank Council’s monetary policy meeting.

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