RTL/ntv trend barometer: Greens rise, SPD third

RTL/ntv trend barometer
Greens rise, SPD in third place

The Social Democrats lose a point and fall back to third place. If there were federal elections now, black-green would together have more mandates than the three traffic light parties, which together only get 45 percent.

The political mood in Germany remains stable. However, the SPD dropped to third place in the RTL and NTV trend barometer, as the Greens gained a percentage point from the previous week. Left gives away a point. The values ​​for all other parties do not change.

If the Bundestag were elected now, the parties could expect the following result: CDU/CSU 28 percent (Bundestag election September 2021: 24.1 percent), Greens 20 percent (14.8 percent), SPD 19 percent (25.7 percent), AfD 14 percent (10.3 percent), FDP 6 percent (11.5 percent), Left 4 percent (4.9 percent). 9 percent of voters (8.7 percent) would choose other parties.

At 25 percent, the proportion of non-voters and undecided is slightly higher than in the last federal election (23.4 percent).

Scholz loses a point

If voters could choose the chancellor directly and they could choose between incumbent Olaf Scholz, Green Economy Minister Robert Habeck and CDU leader Friedrich Merz, 21 percent would currently choose Scholz. That is one percentage point less than in the previous week. Merz and Habeck each accounted for 20 percent — that’s one percentage point more than the previous week.

If voters had a choice between Scholz, Merz and Green Secretary of State Annalena Baerbock, 24 percent would still vote for Scholz and 22 percent each for Merz and Baerbock. In this constellation Merz also takes one point, for Baerbock it is two points more than in the previous week.

When asked which party is best at tackling the problems in Germany, 14 percent named the Greens. 11 percent each of all eligible voters are currently the most likely to entrust the Union and the SPD with political competence. The FDP accounts for 3 percent, all other parties for 7 percent. 54 percent of eligible voters currently do not trust any party to deal with Germany’s problems.

Only a third is satisfied with Scholz’s work

Forsa also asked how satisfied the Germans are with the work of Scholz, Baerbock, Habeck and Finance Minister Christian Lindner.

  • With the work of Chancellor Scholz only about a third of Germans (35 percent) are still satisfied. 62 percent are less or not at all satisfied with their work. Only the supporters of the SPD (76 percent) and – to a lesser extent – the supporters of the Greens (56 percent) are generally satisfied with Scholz’s work.
  • With the work of Secretary of State Baerbock slightly more Germans are currently satisfied (50 percent) than dissatisfied (46 percent). The majority of East Germans, and especially AfD supporters, are less or not at all satisfied with Baerbock’s work.
  • With the work of Minister of Economic Affairs Habeck as in September, 40 percent are satisfied to very satisfied. 53 percent of Germans are less or not at all satisfied with their work. Only supporters of the Greens (82 percent) and the SPD (64 percent) are generally satisfied with Habeck’s work.
  • With the work of Treasury Secretary Lindner almost a third of Germans are currently satisfied or very satisfied. 62 percent are less or not at all satisfied with their work. Only FDP supporters (67 percent) are generally satisfied with Lindner’s work.

The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany from 8 to 14 November 2022. Database: 2503 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 2.5 percentage points. Job satisfaction data from Scholz, Baerbock, Habeck and Lindner were collected on November 11 and 14. Database: 1001 respondents. Statistical error tolerance: +/- 3 percentage points.

Learn more about Forsa here.
Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.

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