Is the next half a year too early?

Much of the crypto community is eagerly awaiting the next Bitcoin Halving. However, the time is not a fixed date, but is calculated, as with the recently successful Ethereum merger, from the blocks confirmed so far. That’s why Bitcoin says: The halving comes in 81,966 (as of 10/10/22, 3:53 pm) blocks.

This factor influences the halving

The recent rise in the Bitcoin hash rate is an important part of determining the next adjustment. On average, a block is found every 10 minutes and the transactions contained in it are fed into the network.

As the hash rate, or the computing power of the network, increases, new blocks are validated faster. The problem: Last week, block 757,214 saw a new all-time high of 321.15 exahashs per second (EH/s). As a result, the average block time was undershot. According to Bitcoinsensus.com calculations, the duration was then 7.65 minutes/block. Accordingly, the halving event was also postponed to December 19, 2023.

Image taken on October 10, 2022 at 2:15 PM Source: Bitcoinsensus.com

Meanwhile, the “current block generation time” is 8.66 minutes, pushing the halving to February 2024. The last bitcoin is expected to be found in 2140. From then on, miners will only receive the fees that network users pay to perform transactions. But how can that work if the hash rate is constantly increasing and the halving events theoretically get shorter and shorter?

Bitcoin solves this!

Two words: mining problems. Of course, the great Satoshi Nakamoto thought of adjusting the network automatically. As new miners join the network or an existing miner upgrades their hardware, the hash rate increases. The same thing happens with the Mining difficulty – the difficulty increases as more is mined. Accordingly, the difficulty decreases in direct proportion when Bitcoin’s hash rate drops.

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To ensure that the block time does not continue to shrink, the difficulty level is automatically adjusted every 2016 blocks. This results in an average time of ten minutes. 2016 blocks equal about two weeks. These 14 days ended yesterday, October 9. In line with the increased hash rate, the difficulty was also increased. At 35.61 T, it marks a new record high.

The last bitcoin halving

The halving occurs after 210,000 blocks, so approximately every four years. The event supports the disinflationary supply structure behind Bitcoin – after all, there will be a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins.

In the past, Bitcoin price has risen sharply after each halving. While this has taken several months each time, the cryptocurrency’s market cap has soared to new heights after each halving. After the last adjustment, investors experienced new heights some time later.

Current market developments, as well as macroeconomic events, are currently clearly pointing to a bear market rally. It is unclear when Bitcoin price in particular can break out of the months of stagnation. Many investors sometimes believe that only the next halving in 2024 will bring change.

It is extremely unlikely that the Bitcoin Halving could take place months earlier or even in 2023. though are almost 61 percent of the 210,000 blocks have already been mined, but the difficulty has also increased. Sometimes you just have to wait and stack sats.

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